Looking forward to 2015 More competition for middle-size contractors as industry associations tackle legislative and regulatory issues By Mark Buckshon Canadian Design and Construction Report staff writer If you could see a crystal ball prediction for 2015 for Canada's construction industry, what would you see? Anyone trying to forecast the future discovers, in time, that the best predictions often turn out to be inaccurate in part because events overtake the predictions. However, the architectural, engineering and construction industry has one advantage – the longer-range lead and sales cycle, from project conception to completion, can provide us with an opportunity to see ahead, at least for the first part of the following year. The picture so far: Not so bad, but with increasing pres- sure on mid-size contractors, as the tendency towards larger-scale projects and P3 initiatives take away the tradi- tional middle-ground in the public sector, even as the pri- vate sector has been slow to introduce new work. “We have seen a small contraction in the ICI industry over the past couple of years,” said David Frame, director of government relations and corporate strategy for the On- tario General Contractors Association (OGCA). “The pri- vate sector growth that went into the 2009 cutbacks significantly, hasn't come back. The government did a lot of stimulus work and that stimulus work has come to an end.” “This means less work, and less value for work.” Frame said the government infrastructure spending ap- pears to be shifting from buildings to roads and transit sys- tems, and this is causing some contractors to reorganize their services, sometimes through acquisition, to attract the new markets.” Meanwhile, Ian Cunningham, president of the Council of Ontario Construction Associations (COCA) said: “I re- cently conducted a quick survey of local mixed trade con- struction associations across Ontario about the level of construction activities in their markets. The prevailing view was the level of construction activity next year will remain about the same level as this year.” Cunningham said there will be many issues on the leg- islative/regulatory front in 2015. These include: • Continuing the fight for prompt payment legislation for construction projects in Ontario; • Active engagement with the Ministry of Labour's Pre- vention Office with regard to improvements to the oc- cupational health and safety system to save lives, reduce injuries and save costs; • The ongoing pursuit of a viable and sustainable work- ers’ compensation system that serves the needs of employers and workers and serves as a competitive advantage for Ontario; • To make sure the government of Ontario follows its 10 year, $130 billion infrastructure investment program; and • Active engagement in the government's review of the Construction Lien Act. These observations appear to be shared by others, such as Andrew Sefton, executive director of the Ontario Paint- ing Contractors Association, and Ottawa Construction As- sociation president John DeVries. Sefton says there seems to be a healthy volume of work in the institutional and industrial protective coatings mar- ket, as maintenance (and infrastructure) work continues to attract more resources and attention than new construc- tion. DeVries, meanwhile, says he sees “2015 as a continua- tion of 2014 – stats showing a strong permit volume but decidedly influenced by large projects dominated by big firms (such as) PCL, EllisDon, Pomerleau. “Competition is very strong among small-to-medium builders for (the) remaining market.” DeVries says he anticipates that public sector work will remain tight due to cutbacks, but some condo projects will proceed in the Ottawa area despite an overall depressed market. The Canadian Design and Construction Report — Fall 2014 – 9