• As many as 7,300 skilled workers, or approximately 21 per cent of the workforce, will retire over the next decade, with this number only partially offset by young workers starting their careers. • “Replacing the skills and experience of thousands of retiring workers takes major planning,” Sparks said. “The key is convincing workers to come back to this province and encouraging far more young people to sign up for skilled trades careers.” CONSTRUCTION JOB GROWTH FORECAST ACROSS MOST ONTARIO REGIONS Large resource and infrastructure projects drive regional growth Major projects will drive construction job growth in On- tario and turn up the pressure to replace as much as 25 per cent of the province’s skilled workforce retiring over the next decade, BuildForce Canada forecasts. Some of Canada’s largest infrastructure projects will drive growth in construction employment over the next 10 years. Fore- cast highlights include the following: • A series of large resource and infrastructure projects create waves of employment in engineering con- struction, with increased demand in Northern Ontario over the near term to 2017 and steady growth in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) to 2019. • Commercial activity also rises in all regions, adding jobs. • Industrial work recovers, slowly restoring employ- ment levels. Growth in industrial and commercial sectors is strongest in the GTA. • Institutional and road, highway and bridge work de- cline over the near term, but rise modestly over the medium term. • Housing construction recovers from a 2013 low point, with recovery reaching new peaks between 2015 and 2017 in the GTA, and Northern and Central Ontario, creating the potential for temporary, cyclical labour shortages. • Retirements result in the need to replace as many as 83,000 skilled workers over the next decade. “Rising retirements, and major projects are two forces driving the industry,” says Sparks. Here are BuildForce Canada's regional Ontario forecasts: NORTHERN ONTARIO • The workforce changes dramatically over the next decade, with mining and infrastructure projects, in- cluding the Ring of Fire, the Energy East pipeline project and ongoing hydroelectric and transmission work, bringing in a wave of new, often non-resident workers. The non-residential workforce increases by 40 per cent between 2012 and 2017. • Housing and commercial building also increases in response, with project demand exceeding the local workforce. • Retirements will be higher in this region, given its older workforce. Recruitment efforts may focus on youth and the Aboriginal community. SOUTHWEST ONTARIO • Recovery is anticipated in this region this year. Major project activity and a revival in housing help to fuel more jobs and the arrival of construction trades be- tween now and 2017. • Increased non-residential construction, including highway, bridge and utility work in 2014, peaks em- ployment in 2017, creating potential recruiting chal- lenges for some trades. GTA • There will be consistent recruiting challenges in this region. Non-residential building is expected to grow steadily, with the GTA planning some of the largest infrastructure projects in Canada. Key projects, in- cluding the “Big Move” and the refurbishment of a nuclear facility, are planned to start, with activity peaking in 2019. This leaves the GTA with rising labour requirements. • After reaching a low point in 2013, residential em- ployment starts a stronger rising trend, peaking in 2019 and then staying at levels close to 2012. CENTRAL ONTARIO • There will be steady growth in most sectors, with a sharp improvement in residential construction in 2015. This increases demand for selected trades and occupations. • Non-residential construction is on a moderate up- ward trend, with steady growth in industrial, commer- cial and institutional construction. Engineering construction follows a mild cycle as major projects start up and then wind down. EASTERN ONTARIO • Construction employment remains relatively un- changed over the next decade. Institutional, road, bridge and other government spending will slow. • Slower growth translates into a moderate decline in residential employment. The Canadian Design and Construction Report — Spring 2014 – 21