declined again between 2011 and 2013. Across the 2014–2023 scenario, new housing cycles up to 2016 and then declines for the remainder of the period to 2023 in line with household formation. QUEBEC: CONSTRUCTION TURNS DOWN AFTER 15 YEARS OF EXPANSION Construction employment in Quebec passed through a record high peak in 2012 and has started a slow de- cline that will reduce activity to 2015, BuildForce Canada reports. “After a 15-year expansion that added jobs to every sector and in all regions of the province, construc- tion has finally turned down. Weakness is most apparent in industrial and engineering work – the markets that led the boom – and in residential work. A long list of major projects has passed peak activity and the projects are approaching completion.” “By historical standards this is not a major construc- tion cycle, but rather a pause or modest slowdown at the top of a remarkable boom. Momentum has slowly ebbed as fewer major projects are planned and demo- graphic conditions will limit housing requirements over the coming decade. The first year of declining employ- ment since 2009 was 2013.” Weakness in 2013 was spread across most construc- tion markets. The market shift in Quebec is similar to the changing activity in Ontario and Atlantic Canada, Build- Force Canada says. “The need to address deficits and weaker global economics has slowed resource invest- ments and the housing boom that had fuelled the con- struction recovery since 2009. Government restraint and investor caution has slowed the announcements of the next round of public projects. Quebec also has an aging construction workforce that will prompt a steady rise in retirements. At the same time, the population under 30 years old is declining, leaving the construction industry to compete with other industries for the new entrants who will learn the trades and carry on the traditions.” Quebec residential labour requirements decline Residential activity, driven by a decline in new hous- ing, was the first sector to turn down. Following a brief decline in 2009, housing starts were up in 2010, but then 22 – Spring 2014 — The Canadian Design and Construction Report Non-residential construction – limited recovery starts in 2016 While overall non-residential employment is on a de- clining trend that will carry activity lower until 2015, a lim- ited recovery starts in 2016. This is a mild cycle with fluctuations that sustain employment close to, and then slightly above, 2013 levels. Employment in commercial work rises, providing sta- bility and offsetting wider fluctuations in institutional, en- gineering, infrastructure and industrial work. In the short term, institutional markets are held back by the comple- tion of the large hospital projects, but these employment losses are partly balanced by new health, education and prison projects. The current slowdown is also concentrated in elec- tricity-related work, as the major hydro projects and re- lated transmission lines that are underway have already passed through peak levels of activity. Very large elec- tricity projects are planned for the coming years, but these investments are smaller than the larger projects now approaching completion. Lower investments in re- newable energy systems, and wind farms in particular, are another contributor to the electricity downturn. Infrastructure activity slowed in 2013, but is expected to turn around after 2014 as the economy improves. Re- source developments – especially under the govern- ment’s Le Plan Nord to develop natural resources, including energy, mining and forestry projects – will slow as part of fiscal restraint. Industrial building has been on the rebound since the 2009 recession and rose to a record high level in 2012, led by mining projects, but ac- tivity slows over the near term to 2016, followed by mod- erate growth to the end of the scenario period in 2023. Non-residential employment rises by six per cent across the scenario period. See Atlantic Canada reports in Atlantic Construction News, page XXX.