The organization’s Ontario forecast shows that while
the pace of construction is projected to slow, major proj-
ects will sustain construction employment at near record
levels over the next decade.

From an international bridge in Windsor to nuclear re-
furbishment and transit expansion in the Greater Toronto
Area and Ottawa, infrastructure projects will surpass resi-
dential building as the primary source of construction job
growth in many regions of Ontario. Construction employ-
ment is expected to peak in 2020, marking the plateau of
a 25-year expansion that has doubled the size of Ontario’s
construction workforce.

Forecast highlights including the following:
• Residential building drives employment higher in 2017
before stabilizing, while home renovation work grows
steadily; • Institutional and commercial building remains steady
while modest growth in manufacturing spurs industrial
building between 2019 and 2020;
• More than 20 per cent of Ontario’s construction work-
force is expected to retire this decade.

BuildForce Canada’s forecast by region:
• Greater Toronto Area (GTA)
Most of the province’s construction job growth will
be in the GTA, where labour demands for major utility,
transportation and other infrastructure projects are ex-
pected to be highest in 2022.

Residential building, driven by condo construction
and renovation work is expected to remain at histori-
cally high levels over the forecast period.

• Southw est Ontario
Construction activity is expected to rise this year and
next, driven by major projects and gains in commercial
and institutional building. As many as 3,500 jobs are
added to 2020, a 30 per cent rise in engineering employ-
ment driven by major projects including the start of a
proposed nuclear refurbishment project.

Housing starts rise modestly to 2021, then cycle
down. • Central O ntario
Construction employment is sustained near current
levels by a rise in industrial, commercial and institutional
(ICI) building and stable engineering investment.

Tradespeople involved in new housing construction
are in demand as residential building reaches peak ac-
tivity this year, before softening in 2018 and 2019.

• Eastern Ontario
Non-residential job growth increases over the short-
term driven by spin off activity related to Light Rail Tran-
sit and other infrastructure projects, adding as many as
2,300 jobs to 2021.

After reaching peak activity this year, new housing re-
mains relatively stable until 2021, then declines, while
renovation works stays near current levels.

• Northern Ontario
Following several years of decline, housing starts are
projected to rise across the forecast period.

There’s a modest recovery in commercial and insti-
tutional building, and a slight rise in engineering employ-
ment to 2021 before receding, as current and proposed
projects wind down.

Low commodity prices have delayed new resource
development projects
QUEBEC Moderate changes with divergence between
residential and commercial sectors
BuildForce reports that there will be moderate changes
in construction employment from 2017-2026, “although
residential and non-residential sectors are expected to di-
verge.” “Construction employment in the province has been ex-
periencing modest declines since 2013, largely related to
a down-cycle in new housing and major project comple-
tions,” BuildForce reports. “Momentum shifts in 2017 with
the start of a modest up-cycle in non-residential activity,
which is expected to peak in 2019, while residential con-
tinues to track downward.”
BuildForce says potential retirements are significant and
have recently begun to consistently outpace estimated
new entrants. “An anticipated 45,500 workers are expected
to retire across the scenario period, becoming a key focus
of recruitment requirements.

“Quebec’s population is growing, but natural population
growth (births less deaths) is slowing. Immigration will
continue to be an important source of labour supply over
the next decade. The construction industry will need to
draw from immigration and other markets to recruit the
needed workforce.”
NOVA SCOTIA
Industry needs to prepare for
demographic one two punch
Recruitment efforts will focus on countering a huge
wave of retirements this decade, with more than 8,000
new construction workers needed to replace retirees.

“Industry needs to get ready for the impending demo-
graphic double whammy,” Sparks said. “The pool of avail-
able young workers is shrinking just as 25 per cent of the
current workforce gets set to retire in rapid succession. It
takes careful planning to counter the loss of 8,000 retirees.

Industry is losing a lot of skill and experience.”
The BuildForce Canada survey forecast shows industrial
building, engineering construction and maintenance work
is expected to sustain construction employment near cur-
rent levels even as residential building slows and popula-
tion growth declines. The completion of current projects
reduces labour requirements this year and next, while ship-
building and manufacturing activity rise in 2019 and 2020.

The forecast also shows:
• Residential construction will decline by 18 per cent
over the next 10 years with the loss of 3,000 jobs,
while renovation work resumes growth after 2021;
• Non-residential construction rises including mainte-
nance, adding 1,300 jobs, a 10 per cent increase this
decade. The Canadian Design and Construction Report — Spring 2017 – 9